The Allen Matkins/UCLA Anderson Forecast states that real estate “investors” are optimistic and buying up “class A” properties at above market value. The Orange County Register wonders is this is the beginning of a new real estate “bubble.”

Only for bubble brains, I’d say.

At the conference of bankers (senior asset managers for three SF Bay Area Banks) I attended this morning, the story was very different.

No, they are not lending on commercial properties – unless those LTVs are in the mid-60’s and the DCRs are at or above 1.35. Hell, we’d all lend on those terms.

As for their forecast: a flat bottom for the next five years.

I’d bet on the bankers. This time.



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